基于元胞自动机民勤绿洲湖区荒漠化演化预测   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

宋冬梅  吴远龙  张志诚  王建  李小玉 《中国沙漠》2009,29(5):802-807

民勤湖区是民勤绿洲中生态环境最为恶劣的地区,土地荒漠化问题十分突出。以民勤绿洲湖区为例,解译1992年、1998年、2002年和2006年TM卫星影像,分析其荒漠化动态变化情况,利用ArcObjects模块结合地理元胞自动机理论构造荒漠化动态模拟模型,通过对比2006年的预测数据与实际数据,对模型进行参数调整和预测检验。预测结果表明,模型预测的准确性达到90%。最后对2012年该区土地利用状况做出预测,进而对荒漠化的发展趋势进行预测分析。  相似文献   

基于SD和CA的城镇土地扩展模拟模型——以江苏省南通地区为例   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

秦贤宏  段学军  李慧  卢雨田 《地理科学》2009,29(3)

充分利用系统动力学模型(System Dynamics,SD)在情景模拟和宏观因素反映上的优势和元胞自动机模型(Cellular Automata,CA)在微观土地利用空间格局反映上的优势,构建一个耦合SD和CA的城镇土地扩展模拟模型,并以江苏省南通地区为例,对模型的实证应用做了进一步的验证。结果表明,这种耦合模型不仅能够对研究区域未来城镇土地扩展数量给予一个比较好的预测,而且还对其空间分布效果做了一定精度上的模拟,这使得城市规划在土地利用预测方面有一个相对科学的依据。  相似文献   

摩擦时间依从的地震活动性细胞自动机模型   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

刘桂萍  傅征祥  刘杰 《地球物理学报》2000,43(2):203-212

设计了一个改进的单断层地震孕育过程细胞自动机（ＣＡ）模型,通过设计外界通过 施加应力与模型间进行的能量交换和模型的细胞之间存在的非线性力学作用,试图理解地震 活动特性的力学机制．与早期细胞自动机模型相比,改进了参数的取值方式,将摩擦时间依 从的理论引进模型,使该细胞自动机模型更接近实际的孕震系统．研究表明参数取值方式对 人工地震序列和各细胞破裂事件的非均匀时间特性有重要影响,较小震级和较大震级范围中 的事件分别遵从明显不同的累积频度一震级关系．  相似文献   

用于地震波场模拟的变网格边长声格固体模型   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

刘劲松  许云  乌达巴拉 《地球物理学报》1999,42(4):536-542

提出一种新的用于地震波场模拟的变网格边长声格固体模型（Phononiclatticesolidwithvariousgridlength,简称PLSVL模型）．该模型通过改变不同介质中网格的边长来体现介质速度的变化,粒子在所有网格中的运动均保持每一步运行一个网格边长．详细推导了该模型的Boltzmann方程,证明该方程及其散射项的表达式与PLS模型相同,因而从该方程出发,可寻出宏观变量所满足的波动方程．新模型在同种网格内部的传输过程不存在误差,在界面产生的误差不会随时间而积累．本文同时给出了一个理论模型的波场模拟结果．  相似文献   

Study on seismic numerical model on the Chinese mainland and its vicinity     

焦明若  张国民  刘杰  车时 《地震学报(英文版)》1999,12(6):632-639

IntroductionSeismicprocessisextremelycomplicatedjustashasbeenprovedbytheeallhquakepredictionpractice.Thecomplexityofseismicprocessmainlydisplaystheinhomogeneityofseismicspace-timedistribution.Therearealotoffactorscausingthecomplexity,includingthemediumofseismicsource,themechanicalprocessofseismicsource,mutualeffectofgroupseismicactivity,andsoon.Studyontheseismicactivitylawstillremainsinalowlevel,especiallyintheaspectofseismicoccurrenceprocess.Manyscholarstrytostudytheseismicactivebehavioringr…  相似文献   

Archaea,the tree of life,and cellular evolution in eukaryotes     

Jing XIAO  Lu FAN  Dingfeng WU  Yanbing XU  Dengxun LAI  William F.MARTIN  Ruixin ZHU  Chuanlun ZHANG 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2019,(3):489-506

The early history of life harbours many unresolved evolutionary questions, none more important than the genomic origin and cellular evolution of eukaryotes. An issue central to eukaryote origin concerns the position of eukaryotes in the tree of life and the relationship of the host lineage that acquired the mitochondrion some two billion years ago to lineages of modern-day archaea. Recent analyses indicate that the host lineage branches within the Archaea, prompting the search for novel archaeal lineages that can improve our understanding of the cellular evolution of eukaryotes. Here we give a brief review of the studies on Archaea, the tree of life and the cellular evolution of eukaryotes, which is followed by an overview of recent progress fueled by new genomic technologies and recent status of archaeal research in China. Future directions for the study of early evolution are considered.  相似文献   

Complexity theory, spatial simulation models, and land use dynamics in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon     

Stephen J. Walsh  Joseph P. Messina 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):867-878

Our research questions and analytical approaches are used to examine coupled human-natural systems in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. They are based on complexity theory and extend from our earlier work in Cellular Automata (CA) in which land use/land cover (LULC) change patterns were spatially simulated to examine deforestation and agricultural extensification on household farms. The basic intent is to understand linkages between people and the environment by explicitly considering pattern-process relationships and the nature of feedback mechanisms among social, biophysical, and geographical factors that influence LULC dynamics within the study area. In this research, we describe how our CA modeling approach emphasizes the human dimensions of LULC change by including socio-economic and demographic characteristics at the household-level along with biophysical data that describe the resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility of farms to roads and communities, and the evolving nature of human-environment interactions over time and space in response to exogenous and endogenous factors.A LULC change scenario is examined by comparing model outcomes generated for a base CA model and an alternative CA model to explore the effects of increases in household income on land use change patterns at the farm level, achieved as a consequence of improved geographic accessibility to roads and communities and increased off-farm employment as a household livelihood strategy. Growth or transitions rules in our CA model, as well as neighborhood associations are sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors of households, resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility, and the uncertainty associated with peasant farming in a frontier setting. Model outcomes indicate that increases in household income are associated with more land in pasture and more land being cultivated for crops as a result of greater access to agricultural markets. In addition, more land in secondary forest succession occurs as a consequence of greater access to roads and communities, thereby, affording a better opportunity for off-farm employment and greater levels of household income.  相似文献   

A hybrid genetic algorithm with local optimiser improves calibration of a vegetation change cellular automata model     

Rachel Whitsed  Lisa T. Smallbone 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(4):717-737

Cellular automata (CA) models are commonly used to model vegetation dynamics, with the genetic algorithm (GA) being one method of calibration. This article investigates different GA settings, as well as the combination of a GA with a local optimiser to improve the calibration effort. The case study is a pattern-calibrated CA to model vegetation regrowth in central Victoria, Australia. We tested 16 GA models, varying population size, mutation rate, and level of allowable mutation. We also investigated the effect of applying a local optimiser, the Nelder?Mead Downhill Simplex (NMDS) at GA convergence. We found that using a decreasing mutation rate can reduce computational cost while avoiding premature GA convergence, while increasing population size does not make the GA more efficient. The hybrid GA-NMDS can also reduce computational cost compared to a GA alone, while also improving the calibration metric. We conclude that careful consideration of GA settings, including population size and mutation rate, and in particular the addition of a local optimiser, can positively impact the efficiency and success of the GA algorithm, which can in turn lead to improved simulations using a well-calibrated CA model.  相似文献   

Calibrating a Land Parcel Cellular Automaton (LP-CA) for urban growth simulation based on ensemble learning   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yimin Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(12):2480-2504

The reliability of raster cellular automaton (CA) models for fine-scale land change simulations has been increasingly questioned, because regular pixels/grids cannot precisely represent irregular geographical entities and their interactions. Vector CA models can address these deficiencies due to the ability of the vector data structure to represent realistic urban entities. This study presents a new land parcel cellular automaton (LP-CA) model for simulating urban land changes. The innovation of this model is the use of ensemble learning method for automatic calibration. The proposed model is applied in Shenzhen, China. The experimental results indicate that bagging-Naïve Bayes yields the highest calibration accuracy among a set of selected classifiers. The assessment of neighborhood sensitivity suggests that the LP-CA model achieves the highest simulation accuracy with neighbor radius r = 2. The calibrated LP-CA is used to project future urban land use changes in Shenzhen, and the results are found to be consistent with those specified in the official city plan.  相似文献   

Simultaneously simulate vertical and horizontal expansions of a future urban landscape: a case study in Wuhan,Central China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Qingsong He  Chen Zeng  Yin Chaohui  Ronghui Tan 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(10):1907-1928

While there are extensive studies of urban 2D forms, research on the varying geometric features and spatial distribution patterns of urban 3D spaces is comparatively rare. In this paper, we propose a coupled model, known as BPANN-CBRSortCA, which is based on a back propagation artificial neural network (BPANN) and case-based reasoning technology with sort cellular automaton (CBRSortCA) to simulate future urban building heights and their spatial distribution. BPANN–CBRSortCA uses BPANN to predict the vertical extrusion of building heights and uses CBRSortCA to simulate horizontal urban expansion. The BPANN–CBRSortCA model is innovative because of its capabilities to simultaneously project urban growth in the vertical and horizontal dimensions. The proposed model also overcomes the limitations of the traditional cellular automata models that cannot simulate ‘diffused’ urban expansion. This research used Wuhan City as a case study to simulate vertical and horizontal urban expansion from 2015 to 2025. The results showed the following: (1) in the next 10 years, new build-up will mainly appear along the edge of Hongshan and Hanyang Districts or will occupy bare land in the form of ‘filling’ and (2) the tallest buildings will be mainly located to the south of East Lake in Hongshan District and on undeveloped land within the city. These simulation results can provide a reference for future urban planning.  相似文献